Tropical Storm Ernesto passing over US Virgin Islands, expected to turn northeast well east of US Atlantic Coast
A Hurricane Watch was issued Tuesday, August 13, 2024 for the U.S. Virgin Islands as Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to strengthen as it crosses the Caribbean, bringing flooding rain, damaging winds and a potentially life-threatening storm surge.
Ernesto is forecast to be a major hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ernesto, located near the Virgin Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Friday night into Saturday.
The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models (particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques.
2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico tonight through Wednesday.
3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
-- Zone Area Forecast for St.Thomas...St. John.. and Adjacent Islands
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Hurricane Watches issued as Tropical Storm Ernesto strengthens | Fox Weather
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO - Cone Forecast (Static Images)