Tropical rainstorm "Tropical Cyclone Four" in Caribbean forecast to run up the west coast of Florida Saturday and Sunday

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas Friday morning, August 2, 2024. As Four moves west-northwestward across the straits of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm development is forecast to occur off the Gulf coast of Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coastal Collier and mainland Monroe Counties along with the Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for far south Miami-Dade County.

The following are the primary hazards of concern with Tropical Cyclone Four:

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system is forecast to fall Saturday through Sunday night. Rainfall will range between 2 to 4 inches across most of the area. Locally higher amounts of 5 + inches are certainly possible and will depend on how this system tracks and evolves through the weekend. A Flood Watch may become necessary for portions of southern Florida.

* Wind - The highest probabilities for sustained tropical storm force winds will be along the Gulf coast of Southwest Florida including Collier and mainland Monroe Counties and adjacent Gulf waters. All of South Florida could see strong winds gusts with squalls.

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the combination of surge from Four and the upcoming new moon could lead to coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet along coastal Collier and mainland Monroe Counties from Saturday evening through Sunday. Other vulnerable coastal areas of southern Florida could also experience minor coastal flooding, especially around the times of high tide.

Tropical Storm Warning for Naples, Everglades City, and Flamingo in southwest Florida.

Tropical Storm Watch for Homestead in southeast Florida.

Tropical Storm Watch for Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Arcadia, Bradenton, Clearwater, Tampa, Lakeland.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 

Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued 

under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. 

Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued 

under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$

Forecaster Papin

Tropical rainstorm in Caribbean to impact Florida, to strengthen